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WYNN RESORTS LTD (WYNN)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 operating revenues were $1.84B, essentially flat year-over-year; diluted EPS was $2.29 (down from $6.19 YoY due to a one-time $474.2M tax benefit in Q4 2023), and Adjusted Property EBITDAR rose sequentially to $619.1M .
  • Las Vegas delivered robust gaming share gains and strong slot handle (+13%), with high table game hold boosting EBITDA by >$30M; Macau EBITDA rose 11% sequentially, aided by higher-than-normal VIP hold, while Encore Boston Harbor faced tougher comps .
  • Management declared a $0.25 dividend, repurchased $200M of stock in Q4 (2.14M shares at ~$93.44), and has already repurchased ~$150M thus far in Q1; Wynn Al Marjan secured a $2.4B construction facility, a key de-risking milestone ahead of the 2027 opening .
  • Near-term setup: Q1 Las Vegas faces a ~$25M EBITDA headwind versus 2024 due to lack of Super Bowl; otherwise demand indicators (ADR, bookings, gaming volumes) are up year-over-year—likely catalysts include ongoing buybacks and UAE financing progress .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Las Vegas gaming metrics: table games win % at 30.9% (above 22–26% expected range) and slot handle up 13%; management highlighted meaningful market share gains and strong January demand despite tough comps .
    Quote: “Our gaming market share for the quarter grew meaningfully... slot handle up by 13%.” — Craig Billings .
  • Macau sequential improvement and operational upgrades: Q4 Macau Adjusted Property EBITDAR was $292.8M (31.6% margin), with higher VIP hold adding “a little over $12M”; rollout of digital tables and data science capabilities should improve OpEx and reinvestment precision .
  • Strategic progress and capital returns: $2.4B UAE project financing completed—largest hospitality financing in UAE history—plus $200M Q4 repurchases and continued buybacks into Q1 underscore confidence and capital discipline .

What Went Wrong

  • Encore Boston Harbor softness: Q4 operating revenues $212.7M (-2.1% YoY) and Adjusted Property EBITDAR $58.8M (-8.6% YoY), with table games win % down to 20.7% vs 22.0% last year .
  • Macau mass pressure at Wynn Macau: mass table win % fell to 17.9% (from 19.1% YoY), contributing to lower Adjusted Property EBITDAR ($108.2M vs $125.8M YoY) despite strong VIP hold .
  • Las Vegas non-gaming comp headwinds: F1 week EBITDA was ~$20M lower YoY due to lower market room rates; REVPAR fell 6.1% YoY and ADR -5.2% YoY in Q4 .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Operating Revenues ($USD Billions)$1.73 $1.69 $1.84
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.91 ($0.29) $2.29
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$1.12 $0.90 $2.42
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$269.7 $133.2 $366.9
EBIT Margin % (Operating Income / Revenues)15.6% 7.9% 19.9%
Adjusted Property EBITDAR ($USD Millions)$571.7 $527.7 $619.1
Wall St. Consensus (Revenue/EPS)N/A (S&P Global data unavailable)N/A (S&P Global data unavailable)N/A (S&P Global data unavailable)
Q4 2024 vs Prior PeriodsYoY vs Q4 2023QoQ vs Q3 2024
Operating Revenues-0.1% ($1,838.8M vs $1,840.5M) +8.6% ($1,838.8M vs $1,693.3M)
Diluted EPS-$3.90 ($2.29 vs $6.19; 2023 included $474.2M tax benefit) +$2.58 ($2.29 vs -$0.29)
Adjusted EPS+$0.51 ($2.42 vs $1.91) +$1.52 ($2.42 vs $0.90)
Adjusted Property EBITDAR-1.8% ($619.1M vs $630.4M) +17.3% ($619.1M vs $527.7M)
Operating Income+2.6% ($366.9M vs $357.7M) +175% ($366.9M vs $133.2M)

Segment breakdown (Operating Revenues, Adjusted Property EBITDAR):

SegmentQ2 2024 Revenues ($MM)Q2 2024 EBITDAR ($MM)Q3 2024 Revenues ($MM)Q3 2024 EBITDAR ($MM)Q4 2024 Revenues ($MM)Q4 2024 EBITDAR ($MM)
Wynn Palace$548.0 $184.5 $519.8 $162.3 $562.9 $184.6
Wynn Macau$337.3 $95.9 $352.0 $100.6 $363.7 $108.2
Las Vegas Ops$628.7 $230.3 $607.2 $202.7 $699.5 $267.4
Encore Boston Harbor$212.6 $62.1 $214.1 $63.0 $212.7 $58.8

KPIs Las Vegas:

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Occupancy (%)90.9% 89.0% 88.1%
ADR ($)$532 $495 $598
REVPAR ($)$484 $441 $527
Table games win %21.9% 23.3% 30.9%
Slot handle ($MM)$1,648 $1,696 $1,913

Wynn Palace:

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Mass table win %23.6% 23.9% 26.0%
VIP win %4.10% 3.04% 3.51%
Occupancy (%)98.9% 98.3% 98.4%
ADR ($)$316 $295 $296
REVPAR ($)$312 $289 $291

Wynn Macau:

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Mass table win %17.5% 18.5% 17.9%
VIP win %2.19% 3.61% 5.01%
Occupancy (%)99.4% 98.9% 99.4%
ADR ($)$236 $233 $240
REVPAR ($)$234 $230 $238

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total CapEx SpendFY 2025Qualitative/wide range due to approvals $250–$300M Set numeric range
Dividend per ShareQ1 2025$0.25 in prior quarters $0.25 payable Mar 5, 2025 Maintained
Share RepurchasesQ4 2024 / Q1 2025 to-dateAuthorization increased to $1B (Nov 2024) $200.3M in Q4; ~$150M repurchased thus far in Q1 Active execution
Las Vegas Event ImpactQ1 2025None~$25M EBITDA headwind vs 2024 due to Super Bowl timing New update

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Las Vegas demand and holdQ2: ADR +15% YoY; Q3: non-gaming strong, table win within range Slot handle +13%; table win 30.9%; market share gains; January demand strong Strengthening ex-event comps
Macau margin discipline and holdQ2: mass 17.5% (VIP below range); Q3: mass 18.5%, VIP 3.61% EBITDA margin 31.6%; VIP hold added >$12M; mass win % 17.9% Stable, focused on EBITDA/margins
Digital tables & data scienceNot highlighted in PRsFull rollout; expected OpEx benefits and precise reinvestment Operational optimization
UAE Al Marjan progressQ2: construction advancing; land bank acquired $2.4B financing completed; topping off targeted for year-end De-risked financing; on track
Capital allocationQ2: dividend $0.25; buybacks ongoing Q4 buyback $200M; ~$150M in Q1; continue repurchases Accelerated buybacks
OpEx mitigationGeneral discipline (Q3) Las Vegas OpEx/day +~1% YoY; cost mitigation without hurting guest experience Controlled cost growth
New market optionalityNot detailedActive in Thailand/New York; disciplined to avoid winner’s curse Optionality maintained

Management Commentary

  • “Yet another record year of adjusted property EBITDAR including another annual record in Las Vegas… we delivered strong quarterly performance in Las Vegas… and healthy market share in Macau.” — Craig Billings .
  • “We will continue to repurchase our equity… purchased $200M of stock in the fourth quarter and another $150M thus far in Q1.” — Craig Billings .
  • “Macau… competitive but stable… we’re focused on EBITDA and margin.” — Craig Billings .
  • “Our liquidity position remains very strong… global cash and revolver availability of $3.5B… net leverage just over 4x.” — Julie Cameron‑Doe .
  • “Financing now in place… $2.4B construction facility… largest hospitality financing in UAE history.” — Company press release .

Q&A Highlights

  • Las Vegas hold calibration: Management acknowledged conservatism in adjusting for unusually high hold; embedded normalization uses ~22% table hold assumption .
  • Demand/EBITDA flow-through: January was strong across key volume metrics; excluding Super Bowl, Q1 setup is positive with disciplined OpEx management .
  • Macau competitive landscape: Market remains competitive but stable; management focuses on EBITDA/margin with precise reinvestment .
  • Capital allocation and leverage: Buybacks to continue given valuation; no OpCo/PropCo pivot; comfortable leverage with fixed coupons; ability to fund projects and repurchases concurrently .
  • Las Vegas renovations: Encore tower renovation phased over ~12 months, scheduled to minimize disruption (floors taken in blocks; pause during peak demand) .
  • Concession CapEx and ROI: Entertainment-centric investments (food hall, event center, theater, show) expected to drive footfall and revenue; specifics on ROI to come post-approvals .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global Wall Street consensus for Q2–Q4 2024 (EPS, Revenue, EBITDA) was unavailable at time of analysis due to provider limits; therefore, formal beat/miss vs consensus cannot be assessed. Expect near-term estimate revisions to reflect: Las Vegas high hold uplift, Macau VIP hold benefit, and Q1 2025 Super Bowl headwind guidance .
    Note: S&P Global consensus data unavailable at time of request.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sequential acceleration: Consolidated EBITDAR up 17% QoQ to $619M; Las Vegas gaming KPIs and Macau VIP hold drove upside despite tough event comps .
  • Capital returns as a catalyst: $200M repurchases in Q4 and ~$150M in Q1 to date, alongside a $0.25 dividend; buybacks likely continue while multiples remain suppressed .
  • UAE project de-risked: $2.4B financing secured; topping off targeted by year-end; 2027 opening remains a medium-term EBITDA and free cash flow inflection point .
  • Near-term watch items: Q1 Las Vegas ~$25M Super Bowl headwind; monitor ADR/REVPAR trajectory and hold normalization impacts on EBITDA .
  • Macau execution: Margin discipline with digital tables/data science rollout; mass win % variability and VIP hold sensitivity persist—focus remains EBITDA/returns .
  • CapEx discipline: 2025 total CapEx guided to $250–$300M, balancing concession commitments, Las Vegas enhancements, and UAE build-out .
  • Narrative for stock: Ongoing buybacks, tangible UAE financing progress, and resilient Las Vegas/Macau operations are likely to drive sentiment; estimate revisions should incorporate hold variances and event comp normalization .