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    WYNN RESORTS (WYNN)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 14, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$80.47Last close (Feb 13, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$84.64Open (Feb 14, 2025)
    Price Change
    $4.17(+5.18%)
    • WYNN is experiencing strong performance in Las Vegas, with broad-based strength in gaming volumes across the quarter, including a 13% increase in slot handle, indicating healthy demand for their offerings.
    • In Macau, premium customers are outperforming the base mass market, aligning with WYNN's focus on high-value clientele, which is positive for their business in that region.
    • The company is actively repurchasing shares, showing management's confidence in the long-term value of the stock and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
    • Macau's base mass market underperformed during Chinese New Year, potentially due to macroeconomic headwinds in China, as customers spend less per visit; this could negatively impact revenue growth in Macau.
    • Wynn faces a $25 million EBITDA headwind in Q1 2025 because it did not host the Super Bowl in Las Vegas this year, leading to tough comparables and potentially weaker year-over-year performance in Las Vegas.
    • The market in Macau remains highly competitive, which may pressure Wynn's margins and profitability in this key market.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Macau CapEx

    FY 2025

    $350–$425 million from 2024 to end of 2025

    $250–$300 million in 2025

    lowered

    Las Vegas EBITDA headwind

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    $25 million headwind in Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Share Repurchases

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    $150 million repurchased in Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Las Vegas Performance

    Q1: Strong non-gaming & hotel growth. Q2: Second-quarter record EBITDAR, up 3%. Q3: Healthy demand, stable table drop, hotel revenue up.

    Slot handle up 13%, table drop flat, all key metrics trending up.

    Consistently strong

    Macau Performance

    Q1\u2013Q3: Focus on premium mass, competitive market, margins above 2019 levels.

    Premium mass outperformed base mass; $293M in EBITDA, competitive environment.

    Shift to premium market

    Share Repurchases

    Q2: $68M repurchased. Q3: $118M repurchased, $1B authorization.

    $200M repurchased in Q4; $150M more in Q1 2025, citing undervaluation.

    Increasing buybacks

    Expansions in New York & Thailand

    Q1 & Q2: Actively exploring both markets. Q3: Not mentioned.

    Still active; disciplined approach, early stages in Thailand.

    Revisited after Q3 gap

    Land-bank-driven LV Expansion

    Q1 & Q2: Mentioned future development plans. Q3: Not mentioned.

    No explicit new plan; focus remains on UAE project.

    No longer emphasized

    Super Bowl EBITDA Impact

    Q1\u2013Q3: No mention.

    Not hosting leads to $25M EBITDA headwind in Q1 2025.

    New in Q4

    Underperformance of Macau Base Mass

    Q1\u2013Q3: No reference to underperformance.

    Base mass lagged premium segments during Chinese New Year.

    New observation

    Macau Mass Sentiment

    Previously strong mass volumes and growth.

    Slight weakness noted in base mass, though premium remained strong.

    Mixed sentiment

    UAE’s Al Marjan Island Project

    Q1: $4B total budget, $900M Wynn equity. Q2: Further equity, construction progress. Q3: 24th floor built, high market potential.

    $2.4B financing secured, $700M+ equity remaining, aiming at a $3\u2013$5B market.

    Consistent major focus

    Regulatory Uncertainties

    Q1\u2013Q3: Addressed for new markets (UAE, Thailand), online gaming, and cannibalization concerns.

    Not explicitly discussed.

    No mention in Q4

    1. Macau Competitive Outlook
      Q: Any changes in Macau's competitive landscape impacting Wynn?
      A: The market remains highly competitive yet stable. We're focused on EBITDA and margins, adjusting reinvestment as needed to drive the best results.

    2. Capital Allocation Strategy
      Q: How are you balancing buybacks versus investing in new projects?
      A: With strong liquidity and comfortable leverage levels, we're able to repurchase shares and invest in projects like Wynn Al Marjan. We'll continue buybacks while multiples remain suppressed until the value of Wynn Al Marjan is realized.

    3. Wynn Al Marjan Progress
      Q: What are the major milestones for Wynn Al Marjan?
      A: Topping off is expected by year-end. We'll engage more with investors and possibly arrange market trips to showcase opportunities in the UAE and Dubai.

    4. Las Vegas Performance
      Q: What's driving strong gaming volumes in Las Vegas?
      A: Broad-based strength indicates healthy demand for our offerings. We've expanded high-limit rooms and enhanced our slot floor, leading to accelerating slot handle.

    5. Macau CapEx Returns
      Q: What returns are expected from Macau's CapEx projects?
      A: While it's early for specifics, projects align with our brand and proven non-gaming amenities. We expect to drive incremental revenue and meaningful visitation.

    6. Expansion Opportunities
      Q: Are there more opportunities like the London acquisition?
      A: The London acquisition establishes presence in key markets. Together with Wynn Al Marjan, we're serving areas with 2.5 billion people and 40% of the world's millionaires.

    7. New Projects Outlook
      Q: If New York doesn't happen, what other opportunities are you considering?
      A: We focus on large-scale assets. Besides Al Marjan, we're active in Thailand and have substantial land in Las Vegas.

    8. Operating Expense Management
      Q: How are you managing operating expenses amid inflation?
      A: Mitigation involves numerous small initiatives ensuring customers aren't impacted. We've proven we can manage OpEx without damaging the brand.

    9. Customer Trends in Macau
      Q: How is customer behavior in Macau post-Chinese New Year?
      A: Premium customers outperformed base mass. Despite economic cross-currents, this aligns with our focus on premium segments.

    10. FX Impact on Visitation
      Q: Will FX rates affect international visitation or spend?
      A: No impact expected. We're more diversified and less reliant on international business than ever.

    11. Table Hold Normalization
      Q: Is using a 22% hold rate still appropriate given higher recent holds?
      A: We tend to be conservative. It's a valid point, and we'll continue to assess our approach.

    12. EBITDA Growth Despite Super Bowl
      Q: Can you grow EBITDA in Vegas despite tough Super Bowl comps?
      A: Excluding Super Bowl weekend, key volume metrics are up year-over-year. We feel very good about our setup for 2025.

    13. Thailand Opportunity
      Q: Which entity would pursue the Thailand project?
      A: It would happen through a subsidiary of Wynn Resorts Limited, the U.S. listed company.

    14. Room Renovations Impact
      Q: Will Vegas renovations cause disruption?
      A: There may be slight impact, but we plan to minimize it. The 12-month process starts end of summer, with careful scheduling to ensure minimal guest interruption.

    15. Room Rates and Pricing Power
      Q: How has market pricing power evolved over the last six months?
      A: Our pricing power felt incredibly good in Q4 and continues into 2025. We can't comment on the whole market due to our relative size.

    16. Leverage and Share Repurchases
      Q: Is there a leverage threshold for share repurchases?
      A: We don't publish leverage targets but are comfortable with current levels. We'll continue to support the stock.

    17. Macau Cost Structure
      Q: Thoughts on Macau's cost structure this year?
      A: Not providing OpEx per day guidance, but it comes down to good management. Non-gaming programming can cause quarterly lumpiness.

    18. Buybacks and Unlocking Value
      Q: Will you consider alternatives if buybacks don't move the stock?
      A: We're buying back stock for long-term value, not immediate response. Not believers in Opco/Propco; we'll support the stock while Wynn Al Marjan's value crystallizes.

    19. Wynn Al Marjan Competition
      Q: Any concerns about future competitors in UAE?
      A: Additional licenses are unlikely soon. We're confident in our healthy lead and first-mover advantage.

    20. Customer Cohorts for Al Marjan
      Q: Who are the key customer segments for Wynn Al Marjan?
      A: Three cohorts: existing inbound visitors, Dubai residents, and destination luxury travelers. Our unique position as the only integrated resort in the region is beneficial.

    21. Future Las Vegas Development
      Q: What's needed to develop the Las Vegas land bank?
      A: Timing must be right globally. We're ensuring market positioning and avoiding cannibalization.

    22. Las Vegas Customer Demand
      Q: What's changed in Vegas over the past six months?
      A: Demand remains strong; we've strengthened our position over three years. Material improvements and enhancements continue to drive results.

    23. Impact of F1 on Gaming Volumes
      Q: Did F1 events drive higher gaming volumes?
      A: It was not F1-specific. Broad-based strength indicates healthy demand.

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